Download PDF Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction
NEW YORK TIMES BESTSELLER • NAMED ONE OF THE BEST BOOKS OF THE YEAR BY THE ECONOMIST “The most important book on decision making since Daniel Kahneman's Thinking, Fast and Slow.”—Jason Zweig, The Wall Street Journal Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the week’s meals. Unfortunately, people tend to be terrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts’ predictions are only slightly better than chance. However, an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight, and Tetlock has spent the past decade trying to figure out why. What makes some people so good? And can this talent be taught? In Superforecasting, Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government-funded forecasting tournament. The Good Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary people—including a Brooklyn filmmaker, a retired pipe installer, and a former ballroom dancer—who set out to forecast global events. Some of the volunteers have turned out to be astonishingly good. They’ve beaten other benchmarks, competitors, and prediction markets. They’ve even beaten the collective judgment of intelligence analysts with access to classified information. They are "superforecasters." In this groundbreaking and accessible book, Tetlock and Gardner show us how we can learn from this elite group. Weaving together stories of forecasting successes (the raid on Osama bin Laden’s compound) and failures (the Bay of Pigs) and interviews with a range of high-level decision makers, from David Petraeus to Robert Rubin, they show that good forecasting doesn’t require powerful computers or arcane methods. It involves gathering evidence from a variety of sources, thinking probabilistically, working in teams, keeping score, and being willing to admit error and change course. Superforecasting offers the first demonstrably effective way to improve our ability to predict the future—whether in business, finance, politics, international affairs, or daily life—and is destined to become a modern classic.
Details e-book Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction
🗸 Author(s): Dan Gardner
🗸 Title: Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction
🗸 Rating : 4.4 from 5 stars (1792 reviews)
🗸 ISBN-10: 0804136718
🗸 Languange: English
🗸 Format ebook: PDF, EPUB, Kindle, Audio, HTML and MOBI
🗸 Supported Devices: Android, iOS, PC and Amazon Kindle
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Readers' opinions about Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction by Dan Gardner
Kendyll Howe
This comprehensive guide to personal finance offers practical advice and actionable strategies for achieving financial freedom. From budgeting and saving to investing and retirement planning, the author covers all the essential topics needed to build wealth and secure a stable financial future. Accessible and informative, this book is a valuable resource for anyone looking to take control of their finances.
Whitney Hardin
This captivating novel weaves together history and romance in a sweeping saga of love and loss set against the backdrop of war-torn Europe. As the world is torn apart by conflict, the lives of the protagonists are forever changed by the tumultuous events of the time. With its vivid imagery and poignant storytelling, this book is a moving tribute to the resilience of the human spirit.
Sharrie Day
Delve into the pages of this thought-provoking philosophical treatise, where the author grapples with some of life's most profound questions. From the nature of existence to the meaning of morality, each chapter offers a fresh perspective on the human condition. With its rigorous logic and elegant prose, this book is sure to spark lively debate and introspection.
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